by Keith Richardson
I grew up in the rural Prairies in the 50s and 60s. I remember vividly the aromas of the town’s livery stable and a horse barn on our school grounds 30 miles out of Winnipeg. Throughout the 50’s we still gawked with wonder at steam locomotives hauling freight north and south through Interlakes country. Not to mention every biplane that flew over.
What’s this got to do with computers? Just a way to get you reflecting on all technologies we took for granted half a century, or 25 years, 5 years ago, or last month….
We often write about change here. Never-ending and increasingly rapid. And, for many of us, a growing burden. What do you mean our 8-year-old (or 5-year-old) computer needs upgrading/replacing? It starts fine and handles email and googling. It’s just a little slow, that’s all, and it keeps telling me I have to update this and that, which I don’t know how to do. And sometimes I can’t get into some websites or access some content. Do I really need a new computer?
For starters, I’m not telling you to DO anything. Just pointing out some facts. Apple no longer provides updates or support for Macs without Intel Core2 Duo processors, or running OS 10.5.8 (Leopard) or earlier. A new iPad or iPhone won’t synchronize with the old systems. Even with OS 10.6.8, you can’t take advantage of iCloud on your Mac, although you use it with your ’Pad and ’Phone. And if you’re still trying to use Firefox on OS 10.4.11, you’re stuck with Version 3.6.28 when the latest iteration of this alternative browser is Version 20! The best 10.5.8 can do is V.16. You can’t install the latest Flash update for viewing animated/movie content on some websites. Your old Mac’s processor and RAM may be inadequate even for 10.6.8! Your frustration level is rising like the Red River in May.
Microsoft will terminate support for Windows XP next April. After that, no new security patches or bug fixes. Third party vendors are unlikely to continue updating products to run on XP. Of course, you’ve had lots of opportunity to upgrade to Vista, Windows 7, or now, Windows 8. Heard the rumours and, believing “if it ain’t broke…,” stuck with what you had? Well now you must face the rolling stone of change. As TechRepublic recently observed, “Whether it’s Windows 7 or 8, there are relatively significant changes to the look and feel and maybe people are resistant to that as well.”
While seniors appear somewhat willing to buy a new computer (although Windows 8 PCs have not been selling well in our market), those under 30 are increasingly demurring to full sized PCs or Macs, even laptops. They’re opting for tablets (iPad minis and the like) and even more for smart phones to handle not only email and web browsing, but with Cloud storage, music, photo collections, documents, and more.
Perhaps you read in April that “Worldwide PC shipments totalled 79.2 million units in the first quarter of 2013, a 11.2 percent decline from the first quarter of 2012, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. Global PC shipments went below 80 million units for the first time since the second quarter of 2009. All regions showed a decrease in shipments. “The first quarter of 2013, was the fourth consecutive that showed a drop in worldwide PC shipments,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “Consumers are migrating content consumption from PCs to other connected devices, such as tablets and smartphones. Even emerging markets, where PC penetration is low, are not expected to be a strong growth area for PC vendors.”
Other estimates suggest the decline is even greater. Read this in the Washington Post (April 7, 2013):
“Has the shift from PC to tablet finally reached the point of no return? There’s been chatter about the “post-PC” era for years, particularly after the introduction of the iPad. But recent data suggest that we may finally have reached the tipping point.
Since the start of the year, the PC market has seen its steepest quarterly decline ever —13.9 percent, according to a report from International Data Corp (IDC)…. It’s not necessarily that users are dropping PC use altogether, but rather that they aren’t interested in replacing their PCs because tablets are becoming the centre of their tech lives….
None of this is particularly surprising. But it is bad news for Microsoft, whose new Windows 8 system is being partly blamed for the market’s poor performance. When the company introduced Windows 8 in October, the operating system was supposed to help a flagging PC market gain—or at least lose less—ground against tablets, with a new touch-based interface. Instead, sales of PCs have dropped faster, and analysts are saying that sales aren’t coming back.
“At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market,” said Bob O’Donnell of IDC in a press release. “Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market.”
Microsoft has been heavily promoting Windows tablets and hybrid PCs over desktops—particularly its own keyboard-toting Microsoft Surface devices, which straddle the line between tablet and PC. It has also emphasized cloud services, such as its Office suite, which can be used across a variety of gadgets, including smartphones and tablets. All this is party of Microsoft’s larger push for its smartphones and tablets, as the company has to fight to take a third-place spot behind Google’s Android mobile operating system and Apple’s iOS.
Seniors, too, will increasingly join the trend. Which tablet are you most likely to go for?
Someday, it appears, there won’t be a livery stable or a steam locomotive or biplane or PC or Mac to be found—except in attics (what’s an attic?) and museums…. Hmmm.