by Keith Richardson
Writing in mid January, I’m aware of how easily we can be lulled into complacency by apparent trends, and very wary of most predictions about what’s “just around the corner.” Last fall’s predictions of a harsh winter seemed rather wrong until last month’s snowstorms crippled the Valley only to be followed by cold as bitter as prognosticators’ gizzards. And then what happened? Well, you know (and I, stuck in January, don’t).
There’s a striking similarity with technology forecasts. Every January, at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the major players making computers, TVs, smart phones, accessories and apps display their latest wares and try to cajole all who’ll listen into acquiring their magical products ASAP. Not a lot different from January’s Spring fashion shows. And how many of us have any sense that we need those new clothes?
Each CES fires a few hits and a lot more misses. Back in 2010, the buzz was all about the “new” HDTVs—LED and 3D models. While LEDs have become affordable, “older” plasma screens are still selling well—at amazingly reduced prices. The 3D phenomenon appears to have fizzled, but may return with vigour in a couple of years as Asian tech makers refine their “glasses-free” systems.
Experts tell us to expect 55-inch, super-thin OLED [oh-lead] technology to grab a toehold this year. OLED TVs use organic light-emitting diodes instead of liquid crystals or plasma displays. More exciting for me is the likely arrival of “smarter,” voice- controlled sets and greater streamed content that will alter our whole notion of “tele-vision.”
Manufacturers are determined to get us to adopt smarter phones. Apple continues to be a major player in this picture, but may become less of a leader this year although many observers are reluctant to bet against Steve’s successors and the iPhone 5. We’re waiting to see if the Samsung Galaxy Note—a cross between a smartphone and a tablet— takes off.
Netbook computers have yielded to tablets, with the iPad leading the way. It hadn’t even been released at CES 2010; already we’re preparing for iPad 3! While other tablet brands fall by the wayside, we’re hearing that the ’Pad will be challenged this year by non-Apple “Ultrabooks,” (ultra-thin, ultra-light, ultra-powerful laptops) imitators, oddly enough, of Apple’s well-established MacBook Air laptops. Will Ub’s succeed where netbooks did not?
If this print media column is your first exposure to this stuff, you are really behind the news curve. Between the deadline for a print article and the time you read it, so much happens that anything it reports, from a news perspective, is “old news.” (We love oxymorons!) So what is the value of a column of this ilk? To remind, provoke, bring attention to issues, share readers’ feedback, perhaps. To accompany an advertisement that identifies at least one person you can call for help with one small part of your tech needs. (And, unfortunately, an “Apple-only resource” at that; thanks anyway to the PC folks who do call.)
It’s especially ironic that you’re reading this on Today’s Senior’s website. While it’s great that TS has a website that permits extended versions (like this paragraph) of the print version of this column, it’s unfortunate that the website is neither interactive, nor permitting of updates to articles once they’ve been submitted. On the other hand, however, one advantage is that linking from this website to other websites you can consult is much easier than it is from the print edition!
With that in mind, here are a few other websites that I recommend:
TechRepublic Blogs (http://www.techrepublic.com/blogs): find out “Why Android tablets failed: A postmortem”;
“10 things you should do when you get a new Windows laptop”;
“Tablets: What Amazon and Apple know that all the CES tablet peddlers (sic) are still missing”; and many other interesting articles.
If you’re a Mac user, there are many useful websites available, but our all-time favourite is MacWorld
(http://www.macworld.com/). This link will show you a list of “Latest Stories” as well as many other special links that will provide you with oodles of useful information.
What can we do to keep up with the incredible (literally, for many) pace of change—of equipment, trends, and opportunities afforded us? First, don’t assume that everything “new” will succeed. Second, don’t wait too long before upgrading your existing hardware and software. Third, look for reliable online sources of information, analysis, and opinion about what’s happening and where we’re headed. I’m not sure these points are correctly ordered or that there isn’t some contradiction within them. More importantly, what do you think?